Ceta, the agreement between the EU and Canada, took seven years to negotiate and worked for about 22 years. But it was a relatively simple trade agreement, which does not contain the rules of service and the agreements on non-tariff barriers that a major exporter of professional services, such as Britain, will almost certainly need. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which is being negotiated between the US and the EU, would become the world`s largest trade agreement, with 45% of global GDP. On the other hand, the free trade agreement with Jordan, the first Arab nation to have a free trade agreement with the United States, was the fastest. The negotiations lasted only four months and the agreement was implemented in a year and a half. How long would a free trade agreement between the United States and Great Britain really last? Perhaps the data from previous U.S. agreements could provide insight. It was the trade deal that Obama referred to as “behind the queue.” The determinants of the longer period, from launch to implementation – provide additional insight. This period has lengthened over time and countries with high trade shares in the United States have longer implementation delays. One explanation is that, as the rules have become more complex, ratification and implementation of agreements takes longer, especially when there is a lot of traffic at stake. In addition, there appears to be no implementation of learning, and in recent years, as trade has become more controversial, the agreements have been subject to further scrutiny. However, the data show no relationship with congressional control.
Negotiations with Jordan – the first Arab nation to reach a free trade agreement with the United States – lasted only four months and the agreement was implemented in a year and a half. Now that Britain has voted on Brexit, the British government must renegotiate agreements with the EU – and with the bloc`s trading partners, including the US. That`s more than 50 countries. Assuming that other WTO members agree not to do so and to transfer existing rights to Britain without looking for unpopular elements, there is an even more serious problem. This relates to intermediate and export quotas that are distributed among EU Member States. In the case of lamb meat, for example, the WTO timetable allows 283,825 tonnes of sheep and goat meat to be imported into the EU from 14 countries, with the exception of 100 tonnes from Greenland. Will the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) exist this year? If not, when? How long would a free trade agreement between the US and Britain really last in the context of Brexit? Given that these issues permeate and so far only with speculation and experts there, it will be useful to examine data from previous U.S. agreements in order to identify possible discoveries. Trade agreements are monumentally complex. When Greenland, a country with a smaller population than uxbridge and whose economy relies mainly on a single industry (fishing), withdrew from the EU in 1985, it took three years to negotiate its future relations with the bloc.
Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, has repeatedly said that the negotiation and ratification process could take between five and seven years. Brussels insiders, especially business experts, say this is very optimistic. The procedures for ratifying EU trade agreements are much stricter than the ratification of the Article 50 withdrawal agreement, which requires only a qualified majority in the Council and a majority in the European Parliament. “It makes sense: negotiating presidents want to make deals that they have started, which will be part of their legacy,” say authors Caroline Freund and Christine McDaniel. The studies of Christoph Moser and Andrew Rose focus on the duration of negotiations on 88 regional trade agreements around the world. Even in this much larger trading set, the authors find on average about two years.